Hurricane Predictions Turning out Risky at Best
Hurricane forecasters are predicting another busy year, with 15 named storms and eight hurricanes in the forecast for this year’s hurricane season. But should we rely on those predictions for emergency planning?

In an article in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Ken Kaye says the predictions by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University have set off a storm of their own over whether long-range forecasts have any validity.

“Some forecasters say predictions so far in advance contain too much margin for error, confuse the public and may lull people into not making adequate hurricane preparations,” Kaye says. “Those criticisms come after Gray and Klotzbach overestimated the 2006 and 2007 seasons and severely underestimated the chaotic 2005 season; in April of that year, they called for seven hurricanes to emerge — and 15 eventually formed.”

Who is critical of the new forecasts? Kaye points to the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County, who say residents of South Florida and other hurricane-prone areas need to make careful preparations no matter how many storms are predicted for a given season.

“The forecasts tell you nothing about whether you’re going to get hit in any given year – even if they’re dead-on accurate,” senior hurricane specialist James Franklin told Kaye. “As we’ve seen, they’re not dead-on accurate.”

The six-month Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1, Kaye says, and at the end of May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, parent agency of the hurricane center, will release its own seasonal outlook.