At a conference in Barcelona, Spain, in March 2003, Campbell Grant, Shell International's senior legal counsel was quoted in the Law Gazette (www.lawgazette.co.uk) as follows:

Legal teams told to seize the initiative when crisis strikes

“Never speculate on the cause of the crisis, defer to an investigation if one has been ordered, and don't be afraid to say sorry and express sympathy, and avoid concern about legal liability becoming a public issue.”

Swimming in a Sea of Consequences

“Crisis" management isn’t an exact science, it never will be! Since September 11, 2001, there has been a tendency toward "decision paralysis." It is the result of uncertainty, fear and instantaneous judgment of negative consequences. "Decision paralysis" leads to being constantly in a reactive mode. Today we cannot merely think about the plannable or plan for the unthinkable, but must learn to think about the unplannable.

Are We Creating False Positives?

Because we are asking the wrong questions precisely, we are getting the wrong answers precisely; and as a result we are creating false positives. If we do not ask the right questions we will get precisely the wrong answers. Getting a wrong answer does not mean that there is intent to defraud, it means that the answer creates a false positive, based on less than relevant factors being presented. For example:

Jon Surmacz's "Disaster Preparedness," CSO Magazine, August 14, 2003, states that 67% of Fortune 1000 executives say their companies are more prepared now than before 9/11 to access critical data in a disaster situation.

60% say they have a command team in place to maintain information continuity operations from a remote location if a disaster occurs. 71% discuss disaster policies and procedures at executive-level meetings. 62% have increased their budgets for preventing loss of information availability (source Harris Interactive).

This is a classic example of creating a false positive. Read carefully and you will clearly see that the executives are referring to the ability to access information and to maintain information availability. None are saying that their companies are prepared for the loss of personnel, facilities, access to normal business environments or any of the other potential problems typically encountered in a disruptive event.

When we begin to assess how our organization approaches problem solving we must address the issue of complexity. Outsourcing, just-in-time supply/production, getting back to core services, etc.; work well in an ideal world; a world where nothing goes wrong. Today so many things can go wrong, everything from natural disasters to cyber-security. Business is so interconnected that we have to create new solutions for these complexities. Not long ago one really never heard of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Supply Chain Management (SCM) and a host of other terms that today are commonplace.

If organizations continue to ask the wrong questions precisely, decisions will be made based on precisely the wrong answers. We will continue to operate in a reactive mode instead of a proactive mode. Corporate management must learn to develop an intelligence mosaic by asking the right questions precisely.

About the Author

Geary W. Sikich author of "It Can't Happen Here: All Hazards Crisis Management Planning" (Tulsa, Oklahoma: PennWell Books, 1993), "Emergency Management Planning Handbook" (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1995) and "Integrated Business Continuity: Maintaining Resilience in Uncertain Times," (PennWell 2003) www.Amazon.com. A principal with Logical Management Systems, Corp. (www.logicalmanagement.com), he has extensive experience in management consulting in a variety of fields and consults with companies worldwide on business-continuity and crisis management issues. He has a Bachelor of Science degree in criminology from Indiana State University and Master of Education in counseling and guidance from the University of Texas, El Paso.

References and Endnotes:

"Legal teams told to seize the initiative when crisis strikes." (www.lawgazette.co.uk.).

Mitroff, Ian, I., Avoid "E3" Thinking, Management General. (1998).

Mitroff, Ian, I., Smart Thinking for Crazy Times: The Art of Solving the Right Problems. (1998).

Mitroff, Ian, I., Solving the Right Problems #328 from Innovative Leader Volume 7, Number 3 March 1998

Sikich, Geary W., “September 11 Aftermath: Ten Things Your Organization Can Do Now.” John Liner Review, Winter 2002, Volume 15, Number 4.

Sikich, Geary W., “Graceful Degradation and Agile Restoration Synopsis.” Disaster Resource Guide (2002).

Sikich, Geary W., Crisis Management Planning for Corporate America – Post 9-11, Continuity Insights, May 2003.

Sikich, Geary W., Global Vulnerabilities - Local Impacts: Redefining Business Continuity Planning, Business Continuity e-Journal, May 2003.